{
 "generated_et": "2026-09-30 18:40",
 "source": "AtlasEdge Sports market capture; public box scores (nflverse weekly player stats)",
 "page": "https://atlasedgesports.com/streaks/",
 "weeks": [
  1,
  2,
  3
 ],
 "breakeven_at_minus_110": 0.5238,
 "ci": "95% Wilson score interval",
 "headline": {
  "weeks": 3,
  "week_min": 1,
  "week_max": 3,
  "hot": {
   "n": 240,
   "hit": 123,
   "miss": 117,
   "rate": 0.5125,
   "ci": [
    0.4496,
    0.575
   ],
   "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
   "pl_110": -5.18
  },
  "top": {
   "n": 40,
   "hit": 19,
   "miss": 21,
   "rate": 0.475,
   "ci": [
    0.3294,
    0.625
   ],
   "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
   "pl_110": -3.73
  },
  "hot_avg_implied_breakeven": 0.5403,
  "hot_avg_price": -117.5,
  "hot_pl_actual_price": -13.11,
  "hot_pl_110": -5.18
 },
 "key_numbers": [
  {
   "claim": "Hot prop (7 or more of last 10 over the line): Over hit",
   "n": 240,
   "hit": 123,
   "miss": 117,
   "rate": 0.5125,
   "ci": [
    0.4496,
    0.575
   ],
   "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
   "pl_110": -5.18
  },
  {
   "claim": "9 or 10 of last 10 (incl. 8 of 9, 7 of 8): Over hit",
   "n": 40,
   "hit": 19,
   "miss": 21,
   "rate": 0.475,
   "ci": [
    0.3294,
    0.625
   ],
   "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
   "pl_110": -3.73
  },
  {
   "claim": "10 of 10: Over hit",
   "n": 6,
   "hit": 3,
   "miss": 3,
   "rate": 0.5,
   "ci": [
    0.1876,
    0.8124
   ],
   "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven, n<30",
   "pl_110": -0.27
  },
  {
   "claim": "Last 5 all over: Over hit",
   "n": 39,
   "hit": 24,
   "miss": 15,
   "rate": 0.6154,
   "ci": [
    0.459,
    0.7511
   ],
   "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
   "pl_110": 6.82
  },
  {
   "claim": "Last 3 all over: Over hit",
   "n": 90,
   "hit": 52,
   "miss": 38,
   "rate": 0.5778,
   "ci": [
    0.4746,
    0.6746
   ],
   "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
   "pl_110": 9.27
  },
  {
   "claim": "Cold prop (0 to 3 of last 10): Under hit",
   "n": 254,
   "hit": 140,
   "miss": 114,
   "rate": 0.5512,
   "ci": [
    0.4897,
    0.6111
   ],
   "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
   "pl_110": 13.27
  },
  {
   "claim": "Hot Receptions props: Over hit",
   "n": 72,
   "hit": 42,
   "miss": 30,
   "rate": 0.5833,
   "ci": [
    0.4681,
    0.6901
   ],
   "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
   "pl_110": 8.18
  },
  {
   "claim": "Hot Rush Yds props: Over hit",
   "n": 51,
   "hit": 22,
   "miss": 29,
   "rate": 0.4314,
   "ci": [
    0.305,
    0.5673
   ],
   "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
   "pl_110": -9.0
  }
 ],
 "row_accounting": {
  "A_official": {
   "rows": 257,
   "hit": 123,
   "miss": 118,
   "dnp": 16,
   "void": 0,
   "graded": 241,
   "over_under": 232,
   "anytime_td": 9
  },
  "B_extended": {
   "rows": 871,
   "hit": 363,
   "miss": 484,
   "dnp": 23,
   "void": 1,
   "graded": 847,
   "over_under": 550,
   "anytime_td": 297
  }
 },
 "pack_rows_skipped": {
  "pack_rows": 862,
  "unmatched_or_no_rate": 19,
  "games_used_lt8": 54
 },
 "cross_check": {
  "agree": 164,
  "disagree": 0,
  "label_diff": 0,
  "pack_in_A": 175,
  "A_not_in_pack": 82,
  "zero_touch_B_only": 10
 },
 "set_A_over_under": {
  "all": {
   "n": 232,
   "hit": 120,
   "miss": 112,
   "rate": 0.5172,
   "ci": [
    0.4532,
    0.5807
   ],
   "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
   "pl_110": -2.91
  },
  "by_l10": {
   "0-3 of 10": {
    "n": 0,
    "hit": 0,
    "miss": 0,
    "rate": null,
    "ci": null,
    "flag": "no data",
    "pl_110": 0.0
   },
   "4-6 of 10": {
    "n": 0,
    "hit": 0,
    "miss": 0,
    "rate": null,
    "ci": null,
    "flag": "no data",
    "pl_110": 0.0
   },
   "7-8 of 10": {
    "n": 193,
    "hit": 101,
    "miss": 92,
    "rate": 0.5233,
    "ci": [
     0.4531,
     0.5926
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -0.18
   },
   "9-10 of 10": {
    "n": 39,
    "hit": 19,
    "miss": 20,
    "rate": 0.4872,
    "ci": [
     0.3386,
     0.638
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -2.73
   }
  },
  "by_last5": {
   "all_over": {
    "n": 35,
    "hit": 21,
    "miss": 14,
    "rate": 0.6,
    "ci": [
     0.4357,
     0.7445
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": 5.09
   },
   "mixed": {
    "n": 197,
    "hit": 99,
    "miss": 98,
    "rate": 0.5025,
    "ci": [
     0.4333,
     0.5716
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -8.0
   }
  },
  "by_market": {
   "Pass Yds": {
    "n": 16,
    "hit": 9,
    "miss": 7,
    "rate": 0.5625,
    "ci": [
     0.3318,
     0.769
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven, n<30",
    "pl_110": 1.18
   },
   "Rush Yds": {
    "n": 48,
    "hit": 21,
    "miss": 27,
    "rate": 0.4375,
    "ci": [
     0.307,
     0.5773
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -7.91
   },
   "Rec Yds": {
    "n": 83,
    "hit": 40,
    "miss": 43,
    "rate": 0.4819,
    "ci": [
     0.3776,
     0.5878
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -6.64
   },
   "Receptions": {
    "n": 70,
    "hit": 42,
    "miss": 28,
    "rate": 0.6,
    "ci": [
     0.4829,
     0.7067
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": 10.18
   },
   "Pass TDs": {
    "n": 15,
    "hit": 8,
    "miss": 7,
    "rate": 0.5333,
    "ci": [
     0.3012,
     0.7519
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven, n<30",
    "pl_110": 0.27
   }
  },
  "by_week": {
   "1": {
    "n": 69,
    "hit": 38,
    "miss": 31,
    "rate": 0.5507,
    "ci": [
     0.4338,
     0.6623
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": 3.55
   },
   "2": {
    "n": 85,
    "hit": 37,
    "miss": 48,
    "rate": 0.4353,
    "ci": [
     0.335,
     0.5412
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -14.36
   },
   "3": {
    "n": 78,
    "hit": 45,
    "miss": 33,
    "rate": 0.5769,
    "ci": [
     0.4662,
     0.6804
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": 7.91
   }
  }
 },
 "set_B_over_under": {
  "all": {
   "n": 550,
   "hit": 266,
   "miss": 284,
   "rate": 0.4836,
   "ci": [
    0.4421,
    0.5254
   ],
   "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
   "pl_110": -42.18
  },
  "by_l10_over_side": {
   "0-3 of 10": {
    "n": 254,
    "hit": 114,
    "miss": 140,
    "rate": 0.4488,
    "ci": [
     0.3889,
     0.5103
    ],
    "flag": "below",
    "pl_110": -36.36
   },
   "4-6 of 10": {
    "n": 53,
    "hit": 28,
    "miss": 25,
    "rate": 0.5283,
    "ci": [
     0.3966,
     0.6562
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": 0.45
   },
   "7-8 of 10": {
    "n": 203,
    "hit": 105,
    "miss": 98,
    "rate": 0.5172,
    "ci": [
     0.4488,
     0.585
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -2.55
   },
   "9-10 of 10": {
    "n": 40,
    "hit": 19,
    "miss": 21,
    "rate": 0.475,
    "ci": [
     0.3294,
     0.625
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -3.73
   }
  },
  "exact_tier_over_side": {
   "10_of_10": {
    "n": 6,
    "hit": 3,
    "miss": 3,
    "rate": 0.5,
    "ci": [
     0.1876,
     0.8124
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven, n<30",
    "pl_110": -0.27
   },
   "9_of_10": {
    "n": 32,
    "hit": 16,
    "miss": 16,
    "rate": 0.5,
    "ci": [
     0.3363,
     0.6637
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -1.45
   },
   "8_of_10": {
    "n": 65,
    "hit": 34,
    "miss": 31,
    "rate": 0.5231,
    "ci": [
     0.4038,
     0.6398
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -0.09
   },
   "7_of_10": {
    "n": 130,
    "hit": 67,
    "miss": 63,
    "rate": 0.5154,
    "ci": [
     0.4303,
     0.5996
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -2.09
   },
   "6_of_10": {
    "n": 12,
    "hit": 8,
    "miss": 4,
    "rate": 0.6667,
    "ci": [
     0.3906,
     0.8619
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven, n<30",
    "pl_110": 3.27
   },
   "5_of_10": {
    "n": 20,
    "hit": 11,
    "miss": 9,
    "rate": 0.55,
    "ci": [
     0.3421,
     0.7418
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven, n<30",
    "pl_110": 1.0
   },
   "4_of_10": {
    "n": 19,
    "hit": 8,
    "miss": 11,
    "rate": 0.4211,
    "ci": [
     0.2314,
     0.6372
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven, n<30",
    "pl_110": -3.73
   },
   "3_of_10": {
    "n": 115,
    "hit": 46,
    "miss": 69,
    "rate": 0.4,
    "ci": [
     0.3151,
     0.4914
    ],
    "flag": "below",
    "pl_110": -27.18
   },
   "2_of_10": {
    "n": 84,
    "hit": 45,
    "miss": 39,
    "rate": 0.5357,
    "ci": [
     0.4298,
     0.6385
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": 1.91
   },
   "1_of_10": {
    "n": 39,
    "hit": 16,
    "miss": 23,
    "rate": 0.4103,
    "ci": [
     0.2708,
     0.5658
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -8.45
   },
   "0_of_10": {
    "n": 8,
    "hit": 3,
    "miss": 5,
    "rate": 0.375,
    "ci": [
     0.1368,
     0.6943
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven, n<30",
    "pl_110": -2.27
   }
  },
  "by_last5_over_side": {
   "all_over": {
    "n": 39,
    "hit": 24,
    "miss": 15,
    "rate": 0.6154,
    "ci": [
     0.459,
     0.7511
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": 6.82
   },
   "all_under": {
    "n": 55,
    "hit": 26,
    "miss": 29,
    "rate": 0.4727,
    "ci": [
     0.3469,
     0.6021
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -5.36
   },
   "mixed": {
    "n": 456,
    "hit": 216,
    "miss": 240,
    "rate": 0.4737,
    "ci": [
     0.4283,
     0.5195
    ],
    "flag": "below",
    "pl_110": -43.64
   },
   "last3_all_over": {
    "n": 90,
    "hit": 52,
    "miss": 38,
    "rate": 0.5778,
    "ci": [
     0.4746,
     0.6746
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": 9.27
   },
   "last3_all_under": {
    "n": 96,
    "hit": 48,
    "miss": 48,
    "rate": 0.5,
    "ci": [
     0.4019,
     0.5981
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -4.36
   }
  },
  "by_market_over_side": {
   "Pass Yds": {
    "n": 30,
    "hit": 17,
    "miss": 13,
    "rate": 0.5667,
    "ci": [
     0.392,
     0.7262
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": 2.45
   },
   "Rush Yds": {
    "n": 108,
    "hit": 50,
    "miss": 58,
    "rate": 0.463,
    "ci": [
     0.3718,
     0.5567
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -12.55
   },
   "Rec Yds": {
    "n": 182,
    "hit": 85,
    "miss": 97,
    "rate": 0.467,
    "ci": [
     0.396,
     0.5394
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -19.73
   },
   "Receptions": {
    "n": 193,
    "hit": 96,
    "miss": 97,
    "rate": 0.4974,
    "ci": [
     0.4276,
     0.5673
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -9.73
   },
   "Pass TDs": {
    "n": 37,
    "hit": 18,
    "miss": 19,
    "rate": 0.4865,
    "ci": [
     0.3345,
     0.6411
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -2.64
   }
  },
  "by_market_hot_only": {
   "Pass Yds": {
    "n": 17,
    "hit": 9,
    "miss": 8,
    "rate": 0.5294,
    "ci": [
     0.3096,
     0.7384
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven, n<30",
    "pl_110": 0.18
   },
   "Rush Yds": {
    "n": 51,
    "hit": 22,
    "miss": 29,
    "rate": 0.4314,
    "ci": [
     0.305,
     0.5673
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -9.0
   },
   "Rec Yds": {
    "n": 85,
    "hit": 42,
    "miss": 43,
    "rate": 0.4941,
    "ci": [
     0.3904,
     0.5983
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -4.82
   },
   "Receptions": {
    "n": 72,
    "hit": 42,
    "miss": 30,
    "rate": 0.5833,
    "ci": [
     0.4681,
     0.6901
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": 8.18
   },
   "Pass TDs": {
    "n": 15,
    "hit": 8,
    "miss": 7,
    "rate": 0.5333,
    "ci": [
     0.3012,
     0.7519
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven, n<30",
    "pl_110": 0.27
   }
  },
  "by_week_over_side": {
   "1": {
    "n": 165,
    "hit": 85,
    "miss": 80,
    "rate": 0.5152,
    "ci": [
     0.4394,
     0.5902
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -2.73
   },
   "2": {
    "n": 196,
    "hit": 88,
    "miss": 108,
    "rate": 0.449,
    "ci": [
     0.381,
     0.5189
    ],
    "flag": "below",
    "pl_110": -28.0
   },
   "3": {
    "n": 189,
    "hit": 93,
    "miss": 96,
    "rate": 0.4921,
    "ci": [
     0.4217,
     0.5628
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -11.45
   }
  },
  "line_move_streak_side": {
   "toward": {
    "n": 78,
    "hit": 40,
    "miss": 38,
    "rate": 0.5128,
    "ci": [
     0.4039,
     0.6205
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -1.64
   },
   "away": {
    "n": 147,
    "hit": 76,
    "miss": 71,
    "rate": 0.517,
    "ci": [
     0.4368,
     0.5963
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -1.91
   },
   "unchanged": {
    "n": 193,
    "hit": 106,
    "miss": 87,
    "rate": 0.5492,
    "ci": [
     0.4787,
     0.6178
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": 9.36
   }
  },
  "streak_side": {
   "hot_over": {
    "n": 240,
    "hit": 123,
    "miss": 117,
    "rate": 0.5125,
    "ci": [
     0.4496,
     0.575
    ],
    "flag": "below, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": -5.18
   },
   "cold_under": {
    "n": 254,
    "hit": 140,
    "miss": 114,
    "rate": 0.5512,
    "ci": [
     0.4897,
     0.6111
    ],
    "flag": "above, CI spans breakeven",
    "pl_110": 13.27
   }
  }
 },
 "anytime_td_set_B": {
  "0-3 of 10": {
   "n": 154,
   "scored": 39,
   "rate": 0.2532,
   "avg_implied_yes": 0.2996
  },
  "4-6 of 10": {
   "n": 132,
   "scored": 55,
   "rate": 0.4167,
   "avg_implied_yes": 0.4313
  },
  "7-8 of 10": {
   "n": 11,
   "scored": 3,
   "rate": 0.2727,
   "avg_implied_yes": 0.4603
  },
  "9-10 of 10": {
   "n": 0,
   "scored": 0,
   "rate": null,
   "avg_implied_yes": null
  }
 },
 "most_obvious_each_week": [
  {
   "week": 1,
   "top_n": 4,
   "top_hit": 2,
   "top_miss": 2,
   "most_obvious": {
    "player": "Elic Ayomanor",
    "team": "TEN",
    "prop": "1+ Receptions",
    "hits": 10,
    "n": 10,
    "last5": "O O O O O",
    "latest_over": -210,
    "slate": "2026-09-13",
    "result": "HIT",
    "actual": "1"
   },
   "all": [
    {
     "player": "Elic Ayomanor",
     "team": "TEN",
     "prop": "1+ Receptions",
     "hits": 10,
     "n": 10,
     "last5": "O O O O O",
     "latest_over": -210,
     "slate": "2026-09-13",
     "result": "HIT",
     "actual": "1"
    },
    {
     "player": "Jauan Jennings",
     "team": "MIN",
     "prop": "22+ Rec Yds",
     "hits": 10,
     "n": 10,
     "last5": "O O O O O",
     "latest_over": -113,
     "slate": "2026-09-13",
     "result": "MISS",
     "actual": "0"
    },
    {
     "player": "Keon Coleman",
     "team": "BUF",
     "prop": "2+ Receptions",
     "hits": 10,
     "n": 10,
     "last5": "O O O O O",
     "latest_over": 172,
     "slate": "2026-09-13",
     "result": "MISS",
     "actual": "1"
    },
    {
     "player": "Woody Marks",
     "team": "HOU",
     "prop": "26+ Rush Yds",
     "hits": 10,
     "n": 10,
     "last5": "O O O O O",
     "latest_over": -113,
     "slate": "2026-09-13",
     "result": "HIT",
     "actual": "42"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "week": 2,
   "top_n": 1,
   "top_hit": 0,
   "top_miss": 1,
   "most_obvious": {
    "player": "Jakobi Meyers",
    "team": "JAX",
    "prop": "38+ Rec Yds",
    "hits": 10,
    "n": 10,
    "last5": "O O O O O",
    "latest_over": -113,
    "slate": "2026-09-20",
    "result": "MISS",
    "actual": "28"
   },
   "all": [
    {
     "player": "Jakobi Meyers",
     "team": "JAX",
     "prop": "38+ Rec Yds",
     "hits": 10,
     "n": 10,
     "last5": "O O O O O",
     "latest_over": -113,
     "slate": "2026-09-20",
     "result": "MISS",
     "actual": "28"
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "week": 3,
   "top_n": 1,
   "top_hit": 1,
   "top_miss": 0,
   "most_obvious": {
    "player": "Jeremy Ruckert",
    "team": "NYJ",
    "prop": "1+ Receptions",
    "hits": 10,
    "n": 10,
    "last5": "O O O O O",
    "latest_over": -225,
    "slate": "2026-09-27",
    "result": "HIT",
    "actual": "5"
   },
   "all": [
    {
     "player": "Jeremy Ruckert",
     "team": "NYJ",
     "prop": "1+ Receptions",
     "hits": 10,
     "n": 10,
     "last5": "O O O O O",
     "latest_over": -225,
     "slate": "2026-09-27",
     "result": "HIT",
     "actual": "5"
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "notes": [
  "One prop = one player × one market × one slate, on the main line at post time. Hit = actual ≥ posted threshold ('26+ Rush Yds' from a 25.5 line). Anytime TD hit = rushing + receiving TD ≥ 1. Every O/U line in the data is x.5, so there are no pushes.",
  "L10 at post time = share of the player's last 10 regular-season games (2025 + 2026 played) that cleared the current line. Last-5 = the last five of those, oldest → newest. Both come straight from the pack that was published before kickoff.",
  "Only HIT/MISS rows count. DNP, VOID and NOMATCH rows are excluded from every cell.",
  "Two sets. The pipeline only posts (and so only officially grades) props with L10 ≥ 7/10 and games_used ≥ 8. That set says nothing about cold props, so: Set A, official graded set = the rows in GRADES_W0N.csv for every graded slate, joined to the feed (last-5, price) and the pack CSV (line move). Set B, extended set (superset of A) = Set A plus every other row in the pack CSVs (Thu/Sun/Mon) that was matched with games_used ≥ 8, graded here against the pack's latest line with the identical rule and the identical public box scores. This is the only place the 0–6/10 buckets exist. Caveat: the pack is curated toward extremes (L10 ≥ 0.70 or ≤ 0.30, big movers, injury context), so the 4–6/10 bucket is mostly line-movers, not a random slice of the board.",
  "Breakeven. At -110 you need 52.4%. The 95% CI is a Wilson score interval; when it spans 52.4% the cell cannot tell an edge from a coin flip."
 ],
 "footer": "21+ · informational only. Historical performance does not guarantee future results."
}